The Palin Effect

I think it's indisputable that Palin turned out to be an electrifying VP choice for McCain, and probably -- almost certainly -- was responsible for the huge bounce the ticket enjoyed till recently. She's got a lot going for her: telegenic, new, exciting, and a shot of electricity to McCain's culture-warrior base. I can't remember - ever - a VP candidate shaking up the dynamics of a race like this one did. But now, one has to wonder if this will be a long-term positive for McCain. For sure, he's got the base on his side, which he did not before, so he will certainly always have that as a "positive" in the Palin balance sheet -- and that is a big positive. But in terms of appealing to the general electorate, and especially independent voters, the bloom may be coming off the rose.

According to DKos, her approval ratings have undergone a shocking 21-point collapse in the last week:

Approve Disapprove No Opinion
9/11: 52 35 13 +17
9/12: 51 37 12 +14
9/13: 49 40 11 +9
9/14: 47 42 11 +5
9/15: 47 43 10 +4
9/16: 45 44 11 +1
9/17: 44 45 11 -1
9/18: 42 46 11 -4

And a CBS/NYT Poll found much concern regarding her qualifications. as well:This isn't coming from the base, which still loves her -- in fact, there was an amusing, kind of sad rally in which it was widely reported that after Palin was greeted by a rapturous, SRO throng, when McCain began his stump speech the crowd began to trickle out. So if the base still is enthralled, but her numbers are eroding, the implication is that her appeal to centrist, swayable voters may not be so good after all. Not surprising given the firestorm of criticism and scandal that has surrounded her, and that she still has not given an interview or press conference that really reassured voters of her basic competence. In fact, there was an embarassing soft-ball question lobbed at her in a town hall the other day -- she couldn't answer it and McCain had to step in and help her out. If she crashes and burns at the debate, that may really hurt the ticket.

Interesting.