It looks like Stevens lost Alaska after all. Franken is surging in the recount and the Georgia run-off will come down to organization. This year, organization is something the Dems actually have.
This is good news for Joe Liberman. (Although, he will vote to support Republican filibusters as you know.)
2 comments:
Weird shit happened in Alaska this year. Nate Silver called it the "reverse Bradley" effect. People just would not admit to pollsters that they were going to vote foe the corrupt republicans, but they did in the end. Both Young and Stevens had like a 11 point swing from the pre-election polls to the results.
Nice to see that Stevens will go out in defeat. Pity about Young. He's despicable.
I agree that it's better than 50% that we'll pick up MN in the end, which is also great because Coleman is just awful. I do not agree that we will win GA. The GOP knows it is their firewall against 60, and they're pouring resources into the race. From what I read the dem investment is lacking. Though Obama is sending his campaign staff there, I doubt it will be enough. We couldn't do better than 48% with Obama on the same ballot; I doubt we'll do better in a special election.
So 59 doesn't suck. If we can peel off Snowe or Collins or Specter, all moderates, on some cloture votes, there's a decent chance that we can get some stuff accomplished.
60 sure would have been nice. It will be nice in 2010, I think...
lty
I agree with Nate Silver that it is all about turn out in Georgia. It's a totally different election than the general. I think the 48% in the general is neither a floor nor a ceiling.
My hopefulness comes from faith in the Obama field organization. They won frickin' Indiana.
Of course, even if we get the 60, Dems are not Reps. There are plenty of Dems who lack party loyalty. Flip side, I think particularly for the save-the-country package Reps will be scared to filibuster and moderate Reps will likely side with Dems (particulaly those up for re-election in 2010.)
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