But I'll go on record here as saying that I think Chambliss will be re-elected in GA. It's a solid red state, and if Martin couldn't win with Obama at the top of the ticket, I don't think he can win in a special election. It's all about turnout, so maybe I'm wrong on this, but I think not.
So as of next January I think the three most powerful people in the United States will be (in no particular order):
- Anthony Kennedy
- Olympia Snowe
- Whoever the Secretary of the Treasury is
It's agonizing, actually, just how much of the democratic agenda will depend on the ability to bring one of these two moderate senators on board. I'm optimistic that they will be able to, by and large. But so close, so close...
4 comments:
I think there will be less solidarity on the Democratic side than this analysis assumes. I also think much of the agenda will pass pretty easily without a filabuster. I think Obama has the political savvy to make sure obstructionists understand that they will be blamed for any lack of progress in 2010. I think 60 will be a moral victory, though.
I also think that the functional difference between 58 and 61 is almost nil right now. It will be an enormous difference in feel, though.
I don't think 61 is on the table though. The 58 number includes Lieberman.
much of the agenda will pass pretty easily without a filabuster.
We'll see. That will depend on the attitude that the senate GOP takes. In 1993, Dole made the conscious decision to be Mr Gridlock and try to deny Clinton any major legislative accomplishments. If McConnell wants to be obstructionist, some high-profile items could come down to the wire. I'm thinking particularly about health care reform and immigration reform.
As for the dems, I think it's easier to keep party unity when you're pushing your party's agenda forward. Rally around the flag and all that. Clinton failed to reach out and bring congressional dems on board and was regarded with suspicion and hostility by the caucus. Obama should not have that problem, and is highly popular. So I am optimistic about the caucus staying together. It depends what sort of agenda they push, though.
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