I think it's super hard to argue that this country is different now than it was four years ago in terms of its aggregate political leanings. It's taken as standard now that the country is center-left and that a solid majority of Americans are now for the politics of the left. I think this analysis really misses the major forces at play in the 2008 election.
First of all, McCain got 46% of the vote. In any other venue in the world besides the winner-take-all politics of becoming the most powerful human in the world, 46% is just about half.
Second, this was in a political environment where the sitting, two-term president had the same popularity enjoyed by the default floor--this is true by the way, look it up. Bush is as unpopular as is possible within the error of polling and the name recognition of a national figure.
Third, McCain did 28 points better than the incumbent president. This has never been done in history, and it's not even within 20 points. The math means that roughly 25 million Americans hated Bush passionately, but voted for McCain.
Clearly an enormous factor this year was Republicans holding their nose and voting for Democrats despite what they think is generally the right policy direction for the country. The only conclusion that is safe to draw is that this is an aberration from whatever the normal course of events is.
4 comments:
"It's taken as standard now that the country is center-left and that a solid majority of Americans are now for the politics of the left."
I wonder if there is some observation bias going on here. I am not under the impression that this is taken as standard. In fact, I commented earlier about how annoying I found the claims that this remains a center-right country and that Obama ran from the center, hours after the same people called him the most liberal person to run for office.
On the merits, Americans support more government involvement in their lives except when you ask them generally if they support government involvement. They want the government to do more about healthcare, the economy, school violence, you name it. But they don't like big government.
However you describe that position, center-right/center-left/stupid that's the position America has taken.
In a recent post I think Liam described Bill Clinton as Center-Left. I think its a tribute to the lasting influence of Reagan and the Contract with America that this President who pushed NAFTA and welfare reform is considered Center-Left. He was when he started, got his nose bloodied, and adjusted. I think Obama will not be dramatically progressive, rightly reading the voters.
"I think Obama will not be dramatically progressive, rightly reading the voters."
I think the voters are conflicted. They want the government they elect and fund to fix their problems. If it does that, they will be happy. If it doesn't they will be angry. A successful dramatically progressive agenda is what people want. Sometimes they are happy to settle for a successful conservative agenda, which is easier.
I think in general people are about 1 million times less ideological that people like us think they are.
"It's taken as standard now that the country is center-left and that a solid majority of Americans are now for the politics of the left."
Wow? Really? It's over, then! We won the culture war!
Except I just don't buy that observation at all. My fellow travelers on the left have been happy to claim this election as a mandate for progressive policies and a repudiation of conservatism. But I think that's mostly just posturing; trying to control the narrative to maximize the political benefits accruing to the victors. Conversely, the conservatives have been denying any such thing, explaining the election away because of the failings of Bush or McCain, but not of conservatism. If anything, they claim, Bush failed and McCain lost because they were not truly conservative.
I think there has been a small but real shift in the viewpoint of the electorate since 2002-2004. The number of registered party members has shifted significantly towards the democrats. I think the failings of conservative governance, as implemented, have turned some centrist voters into democrats, and turned some weak republicans into centrists. It's not a tectonic shift, but elections are won and lost on such thin margins.
I think (and hope) there is a pendulum effect, and this was a turning point. It's indisputable that the country began to shift right in the eighties, and I think the Bush years represented the zenith of conservative ascendancy. I hope and pray that the forthcoming years show continued movement back to the center and then to the left. Time will tell.
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