Interestingly, Nate over at 538 (an awesome site, BTW, that does some pretty sophisticated statistical analysis of polls and demographics and all that) suggests that this time around he sees it as (marginally) more likely to hurt the GOP than the Dems. Fun scenarios:
I find it interesting to see that they expect McCain to have more trouble holding on to all Bush's states then Obama will have holding on to Kerry's. That may just be a function of Kerry having won none of the swing states, or may indicate Obama being a stronger candidate (in a better electoral environment).Also interesting to see that they model a 20% likelihood of a landslide (one way or another).
Fun!
1 comment:
I read this very report a few days ago. I find it fascinating that a landslide in either direction hangs on a small margin.
I've found 538 to be a great read. I have no idea if he's generally speaking truth however.
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