This poll (from the Jed Report) shows the moving report of every national poll from the last two weeks. (For comparison, the light colored lines are the same data from 2004.) It's actually pretty fascinating. There's a very slight improvement in the McCain trend (maybe just rebounding to baseline after his very bad couple weeks in June), but from a big-picture perspective, it does look good for Obama, who is more or less static. Though a lot can happen (see Sept 04), I'd be more worried if Obama's numbers were trending down.Oh, one thing I forgot -- people ask why Obama is underperforming the generic Democrat, and now that I think of it, it's probably mostly because he's not running against a generic Republican; he's running against one of the very few national republicans with a decent reputation for independence, moderation and bipartisanship. So I suspect it's more a matter that McCain is overperforming the generic republican....
1 comment:
You can come up with reasons for his underperformance, but it's underperformance nonetheless.
And yes, McCain is indeed a good reason why Obama can't hold lots of independents. But because it's explainable doesn't make it less real.
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