Monday, October 18, 2010
Fantasy
What if the Republicans pick up fewer than 50 seats in the house and end up with only 47 seats in the Senate. Say, a miracle occurs and two of Angle, Paul or Bennet lose. Will this leave an opening for Sane Republicans to regain control of their party? Will this knock Sarah Palin out of the running for president?
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5 comments:
I only really know one answer, and that is that Palin is not nominatable for President. Even in the Repiblicanest of the Republican party she is not seen as a presidential candidate. She wields enormous power to move the Republican conversation, but she's no longer a serious politician
Well, they only need 40 in the House for Speaker Boehner, but I'm assuming that you're gaming out the "what if the GOP wave falls short" scenario.
It's quite possible -- BTW. Getting the senate is a stretch for the GOP. Doable, but need to run the deck. The house is more likely; every single race that's a tossup has to break Dem for them to keep the house. That's a lot less likely, but about a 20% probability according to statistical projections.
It would be interesting. I would expect that given the huge expectations, a failure to take either house would be played as a huge failure for the GOP. However, they were pretty profoundly repudiated in 2006 and 2008. And they responded to that by saying that they lost because they betrayed their core values and they needed to get even more conservative. Now a lot of us thought that was pretty delusional thinking but it's not a surprising coping method when dealing with that sort of rejection. I suspect that they might do the exact same thing if they lose again (or fail to win as big as they might expect) and entrench even further as hard-core rightists.
This sounds nuts, and it is, but I think it's the most likely response from a party which is so in the grip of its radical fringe, and so em-bubbled in a media landscape which does not reflect the rest of reality.
Consider "Sane" republican Mitch Daniels and his attempts to base policy in reality:
http://goo.gl/Z6Od
No, any sane republican who acknowledges the need to cut military spending and raise taxes will be rejected by the insane fringe. I think it's long-term electoral suicide for the GOP, buy they may make some real short term successes, which is a pity.
Matt --
I hope you're right. Moreover, I think she likes being a celebrity more than she likes the hard work of running for and serving in office. So I don't think she will run (though she will attention-whore right up till the last minute).
Having said that, I think that if she runs, she wins the nomination. Her base is big enough and rabid enough that it'll carry her as far as the convention. Especially if the GOP keeps the winner-take-all primaries. Hoping like hell I'm wrong, or events change the narrative between here and there.
Liam, yes, my suggestion is a less than target result. 50 seats in the House and a 52-48 Senate split is what I've been reading as the break even point.
Matt, I wish I had your optimism. I can't share it at this point given the number of Palin style candidates running right now.
I'd just really like to see fiscal conservatives, that are pro-defense and pro-free trade return as Republicans instead of anti-gay, women, hispanic and masturbation republicans.
Mine is not really optimism, I've been reading about Palin within the party. She's an odd figure.
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